Chrysler's future for the next 18 months....

[XDCX]

As CarguyCo pointed out, a lot of our discussions have been about the OLDCO dealers and looking back at the old Chrysler. I'd like this thread to be about Chrysler going forward for the next 18 months.

I selected 18 months because that's the minimum time-span Chrysler and their dealers will need to survive until some new product from the Fiat alliance starts arriving on the showroom.

Here are the four major variables that I think will impact Chrysler's success:

• What happens with the Recession, Unemployment and the Credit Market
• What happens with fuel prices
• The Government's involvement and their willingness to provide more funding
• The final composition of Chrysler's U.S. Management Team

Concerning the first two variables, they're both outside of anyone's control. Recessions don't last forever and I'm hopeful that fuel prices will stabilize around this level or lower.

Concerning the Government, my hope is the Task Force becomes so busy trying to fix GM that they ignore Chrysler. From what I've witnessed so far, the Task Force rules with a heavy hand and I don't think they've got a firm grip on what it takes to run a successful car company. When it comes to Government involvement - less is more.

That said, I do think Chrysler's going to run out of money and need the Government's help. Although the President and Congress appear to be taking a tough stance, I think it will be hard for them to walk-away when Chrysler needs more money next year.

The biggest variable, in my opinion, is what happens with Chrysler's U.S. Management Team. While I think it's fantastic that LaSorda and Landry are gone, Press needs to go if Chrysler's going to have any chance at all. If Chrysler were able to find someone like Wolfgang Bernhard to replace Press my prediction for Chrysler's future would increase significantly.

Concerning the Divisional CEOs for the Chrysler, Jeep and Dodge brands, I'm a bit of a skeptic. While I understand that the concept has been very successful with Fiat, Alfa and Ferrari, I'm just not sure that the Chrysler customer and the Dodge customer are that different. I don't know much about the individuals Chrysler's selected as their Brand CEOs, so that remains a wild-card too.

What do you think will happen with Chrysler over the next 18 months?

[possum]

Strong rumor has Jeep being sold to GM. That will make NEWCO happy.

[JUNIOR]

Originally Posted by possum

Strong rumor has Jeep being sold to GM. That will make NEWCO happy.

Wouldn't that be the final nail in the coffin for Chrysler? WE were a Chrysler Jeep store and we never sold many Chrysler's. Our business was mostly Jeep. If they got rid of that to GM, what are they going to sell?

[dafuzz1956]

That makes no sense at all, "We must have genisis,We must have all three tickets under one roof, We are selling jeep to Gov't motors

[XDCX]

Originally Posted by possum

Strong rumor has Jeep being sold to GM. That will make NEWCO happy.

I agree with the others, I think selling off Jeep to GM would be a long shot. The UAW would want 55% of the proceeds and I doubt Chrysler Group LLC would be "viable" in the eyes of the Task Force without Jeep.

That said, I had a great conversation with Kitfox one afternoon and we both envisioned a scenario where GM and Chrysler may be forced together at some point in the future.