Win a copy of Bob Lutz's book - "Car Guys vs Bean Counters"

[XDCX]

I guess it's good that I don't post a guess in the forum's contests because I would have lost money on this bet.

Frankly, I'm amazed that Auburn Hills didn't dump 800 Fiats into rental service just so they could have reported continued sales growth and a positive reaction to the JLo commercial. Hell, what's 800 units to Auburn Hills? Even if they had to discount the Fiat 500s by $4,000/unit to find a fleet buyer that's still only $3.2 Million - chump change for Chrysler.

Makes me wonder what they're thinking at Auburn Hills?

OK, enough pondering, now I'll go work on a new chart that shows who our winner is and calculates the variance for everyone's guess.

[XDCX]

Here are the Official Results of the DealershipForum Contest:

[XDCX]

Congratulations to our member sadie1.

His guess of 2,750 total U.S. sales for the Fiat 500 was the closest of any of our members and was within 1% of the actual results.

Congratulations for being our winner - I'll send you a Private Message to determine what address you'd like me to use to send you the copy of Bob Lutz's book - Car Guys vs Bean Counters.

[March88toDecember05]

Below are numbers listing FIAT's national retail sales by month that I obtained from someone I believe to be a reliable source.

03-2011: 323
04-2011: 637
05-2011: 810
06-2011: 1,087
07-2011: 1,483
08-2011: 1,960
09-2011: 1,679 (sales NVDRed through 12pm'ish EST)

[XDCX]

Originally Posted by March88toDecember05

Below are numbers listing FIAT's national retail sales by month that I obtained from someone I believe to be a reliable source.

03-2011: 323
04-2011: 637
05-2011: 810
06-2011: 1,087
07-2011: 1,483
08-2011: 1,960
09-2011: 1,679 (sales NVDRed through 12pm'ish EST)

If those numbers are correct than someone at Auburn Hills must be losing some sleep at night. Those results would indicate that Chrysler's been dumping Fiat 500s into the rental fleets for months and at some points over half of their sales volume was fleet.

I think I'll set up a quick Excel spreadsheet to analyze the numbers.

[XDCX]

Originally Posted by XDCX

I think I'll set up a quick Excel spreadsheet to analyze the numbers.

For Chrysler's sake I hope the "Estimated Retail Sales" are wrong because otherwise 42% of the Fiat 500's volume has been going to the rental fleets and the resale value of the Fiat 500 will plummet once those vehicles reach auction.

If the "Estimated Retail Sales" figures are wrong maybe Auburn Hills will step-up and start reporting retail sales so we're not forced to calculate them on our own?

[crowe]

Maybe they should drop JLo & do an ad w/ Amanda Knox leaving the italian prison in a 500.
They had a 300 spot for the politcal prisoner Aung San Suu Kyi.
At least some americans know who Knox is.

[Txflyer]

Dang it! I was the first to suspect it would be a much lower number, but I didn't guess low enough

[mr4t60e]

I guess the moral of this story is that never bet against Chrysler performing worse in the marketplace than you would think is reasonable.

[possum]

Don't fret, they will come up with a positive "spin" on the numbers.

[XDCX]

Originally Posted by Txflyer

Dang it! I was the first to suspect it would be a much lower number, but I didn't guess low enough

I was thinking that too.

I remember posting that I thought it was unlikely that Chrysler and Marchionne would allow the Fiat 500 to sink below the 3,000 unit mark.

I still think it's odd. It would have been so easy for Chrysler to dump 800 units on some fleet account and then bask in the glow of the JLo commercial. Makes me wonder if something's up...?

[XDCX]

Originally Posted by mr4t60e

I guess the moral of this story is that never bet against Chrysler performing worse in the marketplace than you would think is reasonable.

In fairness, Chrysler's sales performance with their Chrysler, Jeep, Dodge and Ram brands was pretty impressive. They're even touting that their retail sales were up 50%.

[dealer'swife]

[QUOTE=XDCX;26112]For as much time as I've noticed you lurking the forum is great to see you make your first post - Welcome to DealershipForum.

Thanks for the welcome; and should I apologize for "lurking?" I find that word is most appropriate in this internet arena, but it leaves me feeling a bit chastised. So please accept my apologies. It's such a fascinating field (the car business, that is) can you blame a gal for peaking thru' the keyhole?

[XDCX]

Originally Posted by dealer'swife

Thanks for the welcome; and should I apologize for "lurking?" I find that word is most appropriate in this internet arena, but it leaves me feeling a bit chastised. So please accept my apologies. It's such a fascinating field (the car business, that is) can you blame a gal for peaking thru' the keyhole?

Please don't feel chastised for "lurking" - it's such a common occurrence on the forums that we even have our own "smilie" for it -

Most new members "lurk" the forum for awhile and some never join in despite reading the forum for years. From my vantage point the more people we have who join in the better the forum becomes. Some of our best threads started from a new member who had a question or an idea.

So, no apologies necessary and thanks for the post. I agree the car business is still a fascinating field and I think the pace of change in our industry will continue to accelerate.

[XDCX]

Originally Posted by dealer'swife

It's such a fascinating field (the car business, that is) can you blame a gal for peaking thru' the keyhole?

Wow, I just noticed you had the second closest guess of all of our members. Pretty darn impressive for your first post. :thumbsup_old: