College Football - 2015

[XDCX]

The NCAA College Football Season opened up last night and I had a chance to watch the Michigan/Utah game on TV.

It was great to see Utah pull off the win over Michigan for another PAC12 victory but I have to concede that the outcome would have likely been different if Michigan had a better quarterback.

I enjoyed watching football and I'm looking forward to the Washington/Boise State game tonight. (I've got $20 riding on the Huskies and I have a 10.5 point spread.)

On a related note, it was interesting to learn that the PAC12 was the last major conference to add an eighth official to the game and that there's new technology in the replay booth this season that will speed up the game whenever there's a play that needs to be reviewed.

[57years]

"If ifs and buts were candy and...."

[XDCX]

Originally Posted by 57years

"If ifs and buts were candy and...."

That's true, I guess there's just part of me that can empathize with the Michigan fans about how hard it is to watch a great program go down the tubes. It takes a long time to get a program back on a positive path and Michigan might have pulled off a comeback win if their QB didn't keep throwing interceptions.

That said, I'm no fan of Jim Harbaugh. As a Seahawk fan I've watched the video a number of times where Pete Carroll met Jim Harbaugh at midfield and asked Harbaugh "what's your deal?" after Harbaugh ran up the score against USC in a massive upset.

The Seattle media liked to run that clip in advance of any Seahawk game against the San Francisco 49ers hoping to add fuel to the Carroll/Harbaugh rivalry.

[XDCX]

Originally Posted by XDCX

I enjoyed watching football and I'm looking forward to the Washington/Boise State game tonight. (I've got $20 riding on the Huskies and I have a 10.5 point spread.)

Well, the Huskies lost to Boise State with a score of 13 - 16 but I still won my bet since the loss was within the points spread.

To be clear, I don't typically bet on sports but the last time I was staying at the Avi Casino in Laughlin I walked through their Sports Book area and was intrigued by a Self-Service kiosk. I love new technology so I decided to give it a try.

I knew absolutely nothing about the company that ran the kiosk, WilliamHill, but have since learned they're the largest Sports Book in the UK and they're actually a publically traded corporation. When I tried to access their website a pop-up notification indicated the website knew my IP Address was from the USA and I was not allowed to enter their site.

I wonder if an IP Address from Nevada would allow me access or whether they block all US IP Addresses? (I'm guessing that all US IP Addresses are blocked.)

[XDCX]

While I mostly placed my $20 bet on the Huskies because I was interested to see how the Self-Service kiosk worked, I was also curious to learn what the payout would be.

The kiosk explained that most football bets work on an 11/10 payout - meaning that if you want to win $10 you need to put $11 at risk.

In my case my $20 wager will only pay $18.20 - so I only get 91% of the money that I put at risk.

While I don't profess to be Jimmy the Greek I was surprised the margins were so thick. If a good Sports Book uses the points spread to make sure there's the same volume of betting on each side of the game then they don't care who wins or loses. Essentially the losers end up paying the winners and the Sports Book sucks up a 9% margin - sounds like a pretty good business plan to me.

[XDCX]

While I'm not a huge trivia fan I thought it was interesting that Oregon will be rated as the underdog when they play Michigan State this Saturday.

Oregon has been a powerhouse in the PAC12 and they have not been rated an underdog since 2011 - a full 46 games ago. I know Michigan State is tough but if I was in Vegas right now I'd be betting on the Ducks.

Concerning upsets, one of the ugliest games for the PAC12 last week had to be Washington State's loss to Portland State. PSU was a 31 point underdog and they were playing WSU on the road.

To add insult to injury, WSU agreed to pay PSU $525,000 to play the game. When the game was booked I'm sure the WSU Athletic Director thought PSU would be an easy lay-down team and allow WSU to get an easy "W" to start the season. So much for that decision....

That's one of the reasons I love College Football - on any given day almost any team can upset a higher ranked school.

[mryan55]

My little Northwestern pulled the upset on Stanford last week! Growing up and living in Big Ten country I hear a lot more about Michigan State than I do Oregon. Michigan State is a strong team, although they are certainly vulnerable. Had they not created an early cushion against the Western Michigan Broncos last week it could have been a hairy finish for them last week in Kalamazoo.

This is also the first top ten matchup in East Lansing for fifty years, so it will certainly be an exciting day for East Lansing, win or lose. College Gameday will be on the scene. The only bad news for Michigan State is that they can have a phenomenal season but could still be overshadowed by Ohio State since they both play in the Big Ten East.

The Big Ten West looks like it might have some parity and hilarity this year. Minnesota could be the sleeper, judging by how well they played TCU last week. Iowa is always up and down, and Nebraska was the certain favorite in the BT West, but who knows what the pundits will say after a surprise Hail Mary loss to BYU last week.

Illinois started strong again poor competition, but maybe they can surprise for the first time since their Rose Bowl visit 8 years ago.

Northwestern is a question mark, but I'll save judgment since I'm probably a little too biased in their favor.

[XDCX]

Originally Posted by mryan55

My little Northwestern pulled the upset on Stanford last week!

Congratulations on the major upset.

It was a tough ride for the PAC12 last weekend. I forgot about Stanford's loss - they used to be one of the toughest teams in the PAC12.

Originally Posted by mryan55

Growing up and living in Big Ten country I hear a lot more about Michigan State than I do Oregon. Michigan State is a strong team, although they are certainly vulnerable. Had they not created an early cushion against the Western Michigan Broncos last week it could have been a hairy finish for them last week in Kalamazoo.

This is also the first top ten matchup in East Lansing for fifty years, so it will certainly be an exciting day for East Lansing, win or lose. College Gameday will be on the scene. The only bad news for Michigan State is that they can have a phenomenal season but could still be overshadowed by Ohio State since they both play in the Big Ten East.

The Oregon/Michigan State game should be awesome. While I want to see Oregon win for the benefit of the PAC12 I think it's cool that a program like Michigan State has come so far. I think it's great when a community gets behind their team and a big game generates a lot of excitement.

Concerning your comment about Ohio State, I couldn't agree more.

Originally Posted by mryan55

The Big Ten West looks like it might have some parity and hilarity this year. Minnesota could be the sleeper, judging by how well they played TCU last week. Iowa is always up and down, and Nebraska was the certain favorite in the BT West, but who knows what the pundits will say after a surprise Hail Mary loss to BYU last week.

Illinois started strong again poor competition, but maybe they can surprise for the first time since their Rose Bowl visit 8 years ago.

Northwestern is a question mark, but I'll save judgment since I'm probably a little too biased in their favor.

I like it when there's parity within a conference but there's no question it makes it harder to have a top ranked program if you're always playing tough teams in your own conference and getting beat-up.

That was the issue I always had with teams like Boise State that may only have two or three tough games in a season. Not only is it easier to get the players geared-up for the big games you don't suffer the same injuries that the other schools do that are playing tougher opponents week after week.

[XDCX]

Well my UW Huskies beat Sacramento State at home this weekend with a final score of 0 - 49.

The Huskies face Utah State at home next week. Utah State looked pretty tough when they were playing Utah last week but they may have some injury issues - time will tell.

[XDCX]

Originally Posted by XDCX

I know Michigan State is tough but if I was in Vegas right now I'd be betting on the Ducks.

Although the Ducks lost to Michigan State the final score of 28 - 31 would have covered the 3.5 point spread. That said, I still feel I called the outcome wrong - I really thought Oregon would have won the game.

Frankly Oregon doesn't look as strong as they did last year - perhaps proof that one player like Marcus Mariota can really make a huge difference in a team's performance.

Overall it was an enjoyable weekend of football - even though the Seahawks lost in OT.

[XDCX]

Originally Posted by XDCX

Although the Ducks lost to Michigan State the final score of 28 - 31 would have covered the 3.5 point spread. That said, I still feel I called the outcome wrong - I really thought Oregon would have won the game.

One other thought - Props to both Oregon and Michigan State for scheduling this game.

I'd like to see more Top 25 match-ups early on in the season instead of a bunch of games where a team like Ohio State ends up playing Hawaii.

Hopefully now that the BCS era is behind us schools will be willing to take on tougher opponents even if it means there's a risk of losing.

[DealerEx]

Originally Posted by XDCX

While I mostly placed my $20 bet on the Huskies because I was interested to see how the Self-Service kiosk worked, I was also curious to learn what the payout would be.

The kiosk explained that most football bets work on an 11/10 payout - meaning that if you want to win $10 you need to put $11 at risk.

In my case my $20 wager will only pay $18.20 - so I only get 91% of the money that I put at risk.

While I don't profess to be Jimmy the Greek I was surprised the margins were so thick. If a good Sports Book uses the points spread to make sure there's the same volume of betting on each side of the game then they don't care who wins or loses. Essentially the losers end up paying the winners and the Sports Book sucks up a 9% margin - sounds like a pretty good business plan to me.

Margins on booked bets have always been that margin...long before computers or kiosks...lol. That's where the term "bookie" comes from...balancing the books. In a properly run booking operation the bookie always "lays off" the correct amount of bets to balance to books so that regardless of which team wins or loses they get their 9-10%. Once you are established with a particular bookie, you normally set up a settlement point so you're not constantly sending and receiving money each week. That point varies according to the size of the bettor's average wager. Years ago I had a guy walk into the dealership and told the salesman he needed to talk with me privately. He came in the office and introduced himself ...said he was from a town about 75 miles south of me, and handed me a paper sack and said he was supposed to give it me. I looked in it and it was full of cash and I asked him what was the deal? He said you weren't expecting me? Did Raymond call you? I said no...then it hit me Raymond was a big bookie that played in a poker game with me pretty often. I said "ohhh you mean Raymond -------. He said yeah...we settle up at $20k and we usually meet up about halfway but he was out of town and told me to just come here and give it to you and he'd get it later. I asked if he wanted me to give him a receipt of some kind and he said "nahh...if Raymond trusts you, you're OK".

[XDCX]

Originally Posted by DealerEx

Margins on booked bets have always been that margin...long before computers or kiosks...lol. That's where the term "bookie" comes from...balancing the books. In a properly run booking operation the bookie always "lays off" the correct amount of bets to balance to books so that regardless of which team wins or loses they get their 9-10%. Once you are established with a particular bookie, you normally set up a settlement point so you're not constantly sending and receiving money each week. That point varies according to the size of the bettor's average wager.

Thanks for the information - it's interesting to know that the margin bookies retain has been consistent over the years. I guess it's not really a market that welcomes more competition.

I've done a bit more research on the company I booked my bet with, WilliamHill, and I was impressed that they have an Apple and Android App but it only works if the smartphone verifies the phone's location is within the State of Nevada. I might download/sideload the App the next time I'm in Nevada just for kicks.

Originally Posted by DealerEx

Years ago I had a guy walk into the dealership and told the salesman he needed to talk with me privately. He came in the office and introduced himself ...said he was from a town about 75 miles south of me, and handed me a paper sack and said he was supposed to give it me. I looked in it and it was full of cash and I asked him what was the deal? He said you weren't expecting me? Did Raymond call you? I said no...then it hit me Raymond was a big bookie that played in a poker game with me pretty often. I said "ohhh you mean Raymond -------. He said yeah...we settle up at $20k and we usually meet up about halfway but he was out of town and told me to just come here and give it to you and he'd get it later. I asked if he wanted me to give him a receipt of some kind and he said "nahh...if Raymond trusts you, you're OK".

That's a great story. I wonder if the days of the local bookie will be numbered if the states ever legalize some form of online betting?

[DealerEx]

Originally Posted by XDCX

Thanks for the information - it's interesting to know that the margin bookies retain has been consistent over the years. I guess it's not really a market that welcomes more competition.

I've done a bit more research on the company I booked my bet with, WilliamHill, and I was impressed that they have an Apple and Android App but it only works if the smartphone verifies the phone's location is within the State of Nevada. I might download/sideload the App the next time I'm in Nevada just for kicks.



That's a great story. I wonder if the days of the local bookie will be numbered if the states ever legalize some form of online betting?

I doubt it, though it might make a more attractive option for someone just wanting to make a bet now and then just for fun. The serious gamblers want, and need, someone that they can call and make wagers with without putting up any money up front and without any government record of a credit card (for online betting) or especially, of multiple cash transactions.

[XDCX]

Originally Posted by DealerEx

I doubt it, though it might make a more attractive option for someone just wanting to make a bet now and then just for fun. The serious gamblers want, and need, someone that they can call and make wagers with without putting up any money up front and without any government record of a credit card (for online betting) or especially, of multiple cash transactions.

Wait, are you suggesting that Raymond may not be filling out his IRS 8300 forms....?