Betting on Chrysler's future.....

[XDCX]

So, you think you've got some great insight on Chrysler's future, now you can profit from your knowledge.

There's a website, Intrade.com, that makes a market in predicting future events - anything from politics, the weather, even the winner of the 2009 American Idol competition.

Not surprisingly, they have prediction markets for Chrysler's future. Here are the latest odds:

• Chrysler and Fiat complete an agreement by 04/30/09 - 51% Probability
• Chrysler files for Chapter 11 Bankruptcy by 12/31/09 - 71% Probability

Although I've heard of the website before, I don't know much about it. I spent a few minutes learning how it works and concluded that the commission structure seems very expensive - you need a 10% movement just to cover your commission expense. Additionally, the spread between the bid/ask suggests these are thinly traded markets.

Regardless, I still thought it was interesting to see the probability quotes and it will be interesting to see which way the Fiat quote trends as we get closer to the end of the month.