July Sales Predictions

[XDCX]

Edmunds.com is predicting that July, 2011 will be 1.6% lower than July, 2010 and 1.3% lower than last month.

Here are the Edmunds' predictions by OEM - Comparing 07/11 to 07/10:

• Chrysler = up 15.0%
• Ford = up 6.2%
• GM = up 8.7%
• Honda = down 27.2%
• Hyundai/KIA = No Prediction (Due to Hyundai's request to have their data reported separately from KIA)
• Nissan = up 11.6%
• Toyota = down 20.5%

Here's a link to the Edmunds' forecast - click here

Honda and Toyota are still feeling the sales impact due to lost production as a result of the earthquake in Japan. Edmunds indicates that inventory shortages are more of an issue for Honda dealers and Toyota has increased their incentive spending by 25% since last month in an effort to claw back lost market share.

How did car sales shape up for your store in July?

[XDCX]

The sales results are in and the market was mostly flat. Edmunds was predicting a 1.6% decline in car sales and the actual results posted a 1% increase.

Here's a comparison of the Edmunds forecast versus the actual results - Comparing 07/10 to 07/11:

• Chrysler = up 15.0% Actual = up 20%
• Ford = up 6.2% Actual = up 6%
• GM = up 8.7% Actual = up 8%
• Honda = down 27.2% Actual = down 28%
• Hyundai = No prediction (Hyundai up 10%)
• KIA = No prediction (KIA up 29%)
• Nissan = up 11.6% Actual = up 3%
• Toyota = down 20.5% Actual = down 23%

For the most part, the domestic OEMs were a little stronger than forecast and the import OEMs were a little weaker. It's also worth nothing that Hyundai was up only 10% - their weakest monthly sales increase this year.

Chrysler's impressive performance was fueled primarily by increased Jeep sales - up 46% over last year.

[CarguyCO]

Our CJD store had 105 new and 125 used....new record for us if I'm not mistaken.

[JUNIOR]

Our little Kia store did 53 this month, our best new month ever. I have also noticed that when Kia sends out the sales totals, they are adding new dealers all the time. I am seeing some familiar names. My guess is that more of the old Chrysler dealers are becoming Kia dealers. For example, Eagle automall was a Chrysler dealer and I have noticed a Eagle kia now on the list. I don't know if this is a northeast trend or is happening across the US.

[XDCX]

Originally Posted by CarguyCO

Our CJD store had 105 new and 125 used....new record for us if I'm not mistaken.

That's a strong performance. Congratulations on a great month.

[XDCX]

Originally Posted by JUNIOR

Our little Kia store did 53 this month, our best new month ever. I have also noticed that when Kia sends out the sales totals, they are adding new dealers all the time. I am seeing some familiar names. My guess is that more of the old Chrysler dealers are becoming Kia dealers. For example, Eagle automall was a Chrysler dealer and I have noticed a Eagle kia now on the list. I don't know if this is a northeast trend or is happening across the US.

Congratulations - selling 53 KIAs is quite an accomplishment when you figure you had to start from beginning and build your base of customers. (I think it's harder to generate volume numbers from an open point than it is by taking over an existing dealership.)

Concerning new KIA stores, I think that's a national phenomenon and it will likely continue as KIA expands into markets where they currently do not have a dealership.

Concerning your KIA store, are you having any problems getting inventory?

[JUNIOR]

It is slim pickings around here. Sales are up over 40% nationwide from last year and I have about 20 cars on the ground. Kia is also shifting the Optima and Soul to production at the West point Georgia plant. This will help free things up and cut down on shipping from Korea. My rep says that September and October we will have so many cars that we will be refusing them. I hope this is true. It is hard to sell from a empty shelf.

[XDCX]

Originally Posted by JUNIOR

It is slim pickings around here. Sales are up over 40% nationwide from last year and I have about 20 cars on the ground. Kia is also shifting the Optima and Soul to production at the West point Georgia plant. This will help free things up and cut down on shipping from Korea. My rep says that September and October we will have so many cars that we will be refusing them. I hope this is true. It is hard to sell from a empty shelf.

Thanks for the update - I'm happy to hear that shifting the Optima and Soul to U.S. production will increase your inventory position - sounds like a "win-win" for everyone.

I recall a post earlier in the year from our member crowe who expressed some frustration that his sales were being constrained due to lack of inventory.

[crowe]

Originally Posted by XDCX

I recall a post earlier in the year from our member crowe who expressed some frustration that his sales were being constrained due to lack of inventory.

I still have that frustration.
We’ve had less than a 30-day supply for months.
The average age for in stock units is under 20 days.
Sales are up but we could have sold twice what we’ve sold.

[dealer3100]

not hard to get any Chrysler product except SRT-8's, but still an all time record month...134 newand 145 used

[XDCX]

Originally Posted by crowe

I still have that frustration.
We’ve had less than a 30-day supply for months.
The average age for in stock units is under 20 days.
Sales are up but we could have sold twice what we’ve sold.

Thanks for the update - it's got to be frustrating to know you could sell twice as many cars but you're constrained by limited inventory.

Have you heard the same message from your KIA reps that our member Junior reported? (That you'll have so many vehicles by September/October that you'll be refusing more allocation.)

[XDCX]

Originally Posted by dealer3100

not hard to get any Chrysler product except SRT-8's, but still an all time record month...134 newand 145 used

Congratulations on a record month - those are impressive numbers.

It's also good to hear that Chrysler has at least a few cars in their stable that are difficult to get. I wonder how long it will be until the supply/demand ratio changes for the SRT8 vehicles?