March Sales Predictions

[XDCX]

Edmunds.com is predicting that March, 2011 will be up 16.5% over March, 2010 and 25.1% higher than last month.

Perhaps most interesting was their prediction that Ford may outsell General Motors this month - that would only be the second time that's happened since 1998.

Here are the Edmunds' predictions by OEM - Comparing 03/11 to 03/10:

• Chrysler = up 21.6%
• Ford = up 14.5%
• GM = up 10.8%
• Honda = up 24.7%
• Hyundai/KIA = No Prediction (Due to Hyundai's request to have their data reported separately from KIA)
• Nissan = up 23.1%
• Toyota = down 3.1%

Here's a link to the Edmunds' forecast - click here

I'm also surprised to see that Toyota's giving up so much market share - Edmunds predicts Toyota will fall to a 14.6% share, down almost three full points from last year's 17.5% share.

How are car sales shaping up at your store?

[79LilRedExpress]

New car sales are down from last month. And off about 25% from last March.

We were hoping for more, however the weather ( and the Super Full Moon ) played against us.

Used sales however, are up over last month.

[XDCX]

I thought I'd bump this thread and ask how the Durango and Grand Cherokee are selling?

What's the "hot" car right now?

[XDCX]

This thread's been pretty quiet - Any predictions for tomorrow's sales reports?

Automotive News is reporting they expect sales to lose momentum from last month mostly due to rising fuel costs and lower consumer sentiment.

[crowe]

Everything I’ve read says March is up over last year but down from the pace of last month.

We had a strong March but could have done a lot better. Major inventory shortage hit mid month. Ended the month w/ a 15-day supply on the ground & have less than a 30-day supply coming. Allocation is running about 40% of sales YTD. We normally have 75 days on the ground w/ 30-days + coming.
Our traffic was way down the last 10 days of the month. Might have been that we had more holes in the lines than units.
Parts & service had their best month ever.

[XDCX]

Originally Posted by crowe

Major inventory shortage hit mid month. Ended the month w/ a 15-day supply on the ground & have less than a 30-day supply coming. Allocation is running about 40% of sales YTD. We normally have 75 days on the ground w/ 30-days + coming.

I'm guessing your inventory situation reflects your KIA franchise and not your Chrysler franchise. (The fact that your allocation is running at about 40% of your sales is the most obvious clue.)

It's got to be frustrating to build so much momentum with KIA and then watch potential customers buy their cars somewhere else because you can't get enough inventory.

[XDCX]

It appears the predictions were correct and Ford outsold General Motors last month by about 5,600 units.

Ford was up 16% over last March while GM reported a 10% increase. GM reported that fleet sales made up 24% of their sales volume. (I don't think Ford reports their Retail/Fleet mix.)

Congratulations to Ford for a great month.

[XDCX]

Chrysler just reported their March, 2011 sales were 31% higher than a year earlier - outpacing the prediction of a 21% sales increase.

[XDCX]

Here's a comparison of the Edmunds forecast versus the actual results - Comparing 03/10 to 03/11:

• Chrysler = up 21.6% Actual = up 31%
• Ford = up 14.5% Actual = up 16%
• GM = up 10.8% Actual = up 10%
• Honda = up 24.7% Actual = up 24%
• Hyundai = No prediction (Hyundai Group up 32%)
• KIA = No prediction (Hyundai Group up 45%)
• Nissan = up 23.1% Actual = up 27%
• Toyota = down 3.1% Actual = down 6%

The Edmunds forecast was pretty accurate this month - they predicted a 16.5% increase over last year and the actual results came in with a 17% increase. Edmunds' biggest miss was under-estimating Chrysler's sales and over-estimating Toyota's. I'm still amazed that Toyota's willing to give up so much market share.

The other surprise is GM's sales results from one month to the next - they were up 70% last month and only 10% this month. I'm guessing it's a challenge for a dealer to manage an inventory if sales volumes are that volatile.

[79LilRedExpress]

Originally Posted by XDCX

The other surprise is GM's sales results from one month to the next - they were up 70% last month and only 10% this month. I'm guessing it's a challenge for a dealer to manage an inventory if sales volumes are that volatile.

Might it be a direct reflection of GM's reduction in incentives?

How many times have we seen sales momentum stopped dead because of radical change in incetives from one month to the next....

[XDCX]

Originally Posted by 79LilRedExpress

Might it be a direct reflection of GM's reduction in incentives?

How many times have we seen sales momentum stopped dead because of radical change in incetives from one month to the next....

Based on what I've read I think you've identified the primary reason for the big sales swing within GM. For some reason GM stepped up and bought the market in February and then backed away in March.

Ford has stated publicly that they're not going to play the incentives game and Toyota seems to be willing to give up market share without much of a fight.

I guess it will be interesting to see what happens in April.