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Old 03-10-2008, 10:23 PM   #1
XDCX
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Question Housing, Gas Prices or the Stock Market?

Housing, Gas Prices and the Stock Market - we all know the stories and we all know that they can have an effect on the car/truck market.

The question is, of the three, which is having the biggest impact on car/truck sales?
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Old 03-11-2008, 05:59 AM   #2
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Housing - the second biggest purchase in the average person's life is a vehicle. The first...housing. There is a relationship between the two. We'll see an upturn in car/truck sales when the housing market comes back around.
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Old 03-11-2008, 06:18 PM   #3
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Housing - the second biggest purchase in the average person's life is a vehicle. The first...housing. There is a relationship between the two. We'll see an upturn in car/truck sales when the housing market comes back around.
Excellent point - it would also fit with the sales data that suggests the softest markets are in California, Nevada and Florida - the same markets that got hit first with the Real Estate sell-off.

It's too bad it's not more closely tied to the Stock Market - the Dow was up over 400 points today - the greatest one day point gain in almost six years!

One day does not establish a trend, but at this point I'll take any good news I can find.
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Old 03-11-2008, 06:54 PM   #4
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As long as the Fed is going to be reactionary (i.e. loaning 200 billion dollars today), the stock market is going to be on a roller coaster. I'm a firm believer the recession that the Fed is "holding" off just needs to happen.
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Old 03-11-2008, 10:25 PM   #5
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As long as the Fed is going to be reactionary (i.e. loaning 200 billion dollars today), the stock market is going to be on a roller coaster. I'm a firm believer the recession that the Fed is "holding" off just needs to happen.
I don't know, I've got mixed emotions.

To the extent that the Fed can intervene and prevent a recession I think they need to. The credit markets are too tight and they have been since July. Instead of getting better, they've gotten worse.

The fear is that the Fed will over-react and create an inflationary environment.

There's no question that it's been a bumpy ride. It will be interesting to see how the Fed navigates through this mess.
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Old 06-20-2008, 12:41 PM   #6
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Housing - the second biggest purchase in the average person's life is a vehicle. The first...housing. There is a relationship between the two. We'll see an upturn in car/truck sales when the housing market comes back around.
Still willing to stay with the Housing pick?

Back when this thread was started I don't think anyone was thinking we would see gasoline at $4.50/gallon.

There's no question that $4+/gallon gas is the "tipping point" where the consumer stops buying Trucks and SUVs. As bad as May was, it's looking like June will be even worse.

The price of gasoline is driving the car market right now - it will be interesting to see how long it remains as the driving force.
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Old 07-11-2008, 06:59 PM   #7
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Unhappy Now it looks like the Stock Market is competing for attention

Just when I had convinced myself that high gas prices were the number one factor in driving down car/truck sales, the stock market decides to tank.

For the first time in over two years the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell below 11,000 - dropping almost 23% over the past year.

I like to consider myself to be a positive person but it's getting harder to see better times on the horizon. Oil prices continue to surge, housing values continue to fall, foreclosures are at record levels and the Stock Market is in a full-throttle "Bear" retreat.

Hopefully the old adage about it being "darkest before the dawn" will come to true and the economy will begin to recover.
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Old 09-16-2008, 08:48 AM   #8
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Default Now we have to deal with tightening credit

When you look back at this thread and take notice of the dates that each post was dated, 2008 has been an incredibly tough year for the car business.

At the beginning of the year falling home prices and foreclosures grabbed the headlines. Following that a continued sell-off in the stock market provided customers with reasons to forestall their next vehicle purchase.

In the summer the huge increase in fuel prices slammed the car business with the lowest sales levels in decades.

Now we have to deal with tightening credit.

With the failure of Bear Stearns and Lehman there is a massive "de-leveraging" that's taking place on Wall Street. Simply said, banks and other institutions are pulling back on their lending in an effort to limit their exposure.

It will be interesting to see what the Fed does with interest rates this afternoon - Wall Street is really hoping for a shot in the arm to reverse the current downward spiral.
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Old 09-29-2008, 09:02 AM   #9
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Default Let's throw in a couple of Bank Failures just to make it interesting...

As if things were not challenging enough, let's throw in a couple of Bank Failures.

Yeah, people love to spend money on a new car when they're reading about Washington Mutual's failure, followed days later by Wachovia Bank. And let's not forget the headlines that talk about the eventual layoffs and the shareholders that lost 90% of their investment overnight.

This is just an amazing time - it's the perfect storm of bad news.

I know that the economy will eventually turn in a positive direction but this steady stream of bad news is getting really old.
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Old 11-20-2008, 10:46 PM   #10
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Default What a year it has been......

The one thing I really like about Forums is the ability to revive a thread and examine the past.

This thread started in March, 2008 and the main concern affecting car sales was the housing market.

By June, 2008 it was clear that fuel prices in excess of $4/gallon were impacting vehicle sales and causing dealerships to fail.

By July, 2008 I expressed a concern that the stock market's fall was going to impact sales. I noted that "For the first time in over two years the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell below 11,000."

By September, 2008 it was the combination of tightening credit and bank failures that were putting pressure on vehicle sales.

Well, it's November, 2008 and the S&P 500 is at an 11 year low, jobless claims hit a 16 year high and we have Congressional Hearings discussing the need for Bridge Loans to keep the OEMs out of bankruptcy.

It's been a great year so far...
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Old 11-21-2008, 04:06 AM   #11
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XMAN, you are right it has been a hell of a year. For our little store we started off pretty good until the housing mkt started to decline and gas began to climb. Money was coming in (not at a record pace), but things were ok. Like I said in a different thread no seat belts or mallox issued. Right now both should be "std equipement".

The one thing you did not mention was na election that did not assist in the retrieval of any market improvement and only seemed to add another padlock to the countries buying confidence, does anyone know where the KEY is?

Lately there has been more negativety in the market place than I can remember ever before, I am 52 and in this business for almost 25 years. I see more lines and concern on the faces of my counterparts than ever before. I guess the only true answer to this mess is to turn all of this over to a power greater than ourselves.
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Old 11-21-2008, 10:08 AM   #12
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Lately there has been more negativety in the market place than I can remember ever before, I am 52 and in this business for almost 25 years. I see more lines and concern on the faces of my counterparts than ever before. I guess the only true answer to this mess is to turn all of this over to a power greater than ourselves.
I agree, there's more worry and concern now than I have seen since the 1979 - 1980 recession. People are worried about their jobs, their retirement, their kid's education, etc. And for the first time in decades, they're not spending money.

What's worse is when you finally find a customer that's willing to make a major purchase it's hard to find a funding source.

In my opinion, the only thing that will get us out of this mess is time. The experts have said that there's no recovery until housing prices stabilize - once that happens we can assess the damage to the financial system and move forward.

My bet is that 2009 will be a rocky year - but the survivors will be rewarded with "pent-up" demand and a great sales year in 2010.
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Old 02-23-2009, 05:45 PM   #13
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Unhappy The Stock Market continues to fall

This thread is almost a year old and it continues to be a battle to see which segment of the economy has the biggest impact on the consumer.

Today the Stock Market is trumping for attention - the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 7,114 off 250 points for the day. The Dow has lost almost half its value in the last 18 months and currently sits at a 12 year low.

That said, recessions don't last forever and there will clearly be better days ahead for the car business.
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Old 02-24-2009, 07:49 AM   #14
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This is/was the lead story on CNN online and immediately thought about Carguy and his continual breath of fresh air concerning our industry’s performance.

http://www.cnn.com/2009/US/02/24/den...omy/index.html

I guess my point here is that we will rebound and there is a future for us!!!

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Old 02-24-2009, 11:06 AM   #15
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I guess my point here is that we will rebound and there is a future for us!!!
I smiled when I read that the Stock Market was up today because Bernanke indicated that the recession may end this year. Maybe he read your post and changed his outlook?

Here's a link to some good news: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Bernan...-14453719.html
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