January Auto Sales Predictions

[XDCX]

Edmunds.com is predicting that January, 10 will be up 7.1% over January, 09 but 31% lower than last month.

Here are their predictions by OEM - Comparing 01/10 to 01/09

• Chrysler = up 5.7%
• Ford = up 33.4%
• GM = up 8.8%
• Honda = up 2.8%
• Hyundai/KIA = down 0.9%
• Nissan = up 13.7%
• Toyota = down 11.9%

It will be interesting to see how accurate their predictions are. Here's a link to their forecast - click here

[XDCX]

Well the first reports are in and Ford's up 24% and Subaru is up 28%.

[crowe]

The Edmund's projection for Chrysler is based on 65,000 units sold for 01/10.
The dealership sales are 33,000 on dealerconnect.
If true that's almost 50% in fleet.

[XDCX]

Originally Posted by crowe

If true that's almost 50% in fleet.

It seems odd that Chrysler's willing to sell 50% of their volume as fleet while Marchionne keeps insisting that he'd rather have margin over volume. That's not a good plan if he wants to have a viable dealer network.

[CL Pgh]

I don't recall the exact numbers... but our fleet sales have been in that range the past 3-4 months now.

[XDCX]

It looks like Chrysler's down 8% and Nissan's up 16%.

Chrysler only reported 57K units and was outsold by Nissan with 62K units. That means that Chrysler has probably sunk to #6 in the U.S. behind GM, Toyota, Ford, Honda and Nissan.

[possum]

Auto News reports Chrysler down 11%.

Are Dealers going to be able to stay at this level?

[XDCX]

Originally Posted by possum

Auto News reports Chrysler down 11%.

I think the difference is the adjustment made for the number of selling days per month. As a West Coast guy I've never bought into the "adjusted" number since most dealerships are open seven days a week.

Originally Posted by possum

Are Dealers going to be able to stay at this level?

That's the tough question. Sadly, it appears no one at Auburn Hills is asking that question or cares about the answer.

I heard that one of the BC Managers was boastful that Chrysler's profitable at these low levels since the bankruptcy reorganization. While that's great news for Auburn Hills, I think in means that many of their dealers will starve.

[XDCX]

Here's a comparison of the Edmunds.com forecast versus the actual results - Comparing 01/10 to 01/09:

• Chrysler = up 5.7% Actual = down 8%
• Ford = up 33.4% Actual = up 25%
• GM = up 8.8% Actual = up 14%
• Honda = up 2.8% Actual = down 5%
• Hyundai/KIA = down 0.9% Actual = up 13%
• Nissan = up 13.7% Actual = up 16%
• Toyota = down 11.9% Actual = down 16%

It appears Edmunds.com missed the Chrysler and Hyundai forecast the most - they over estimated Chrysler's performance and under-estimated Hyundai's. Maybe they should be reading the forum.

[Ralph]

That's the tough question. Sadly, it appears no one at Auburn Hills is asking that question or cares about the answer.

I heard that one of the BC Managers was boastful that Chrysler's profitable at these low levels since the bankruptcy reorganization. While that's great news for Auburn Hills, I think in means that many of their dealers will starve.

Who does Chrysler represent now, Fiat's business interests or their American franchisees sales and viability? It's all well and good that Chrysler selling at a rate of 400,000 vehicles a year, (32,000 in January x 12) can break even or be profitable, but how does the taxpaying dealers and their employees survive? Are they simply Fiat now, and can do whatever they wish with the American market?

[CL Pgh]

Originally Posted by Ralph

I heard that one of the BC Managers was boastful that Chrysler's profitable at these low levels since the bankruptcy reorganization. While that's great news for Auburn Hills, I think in means that many of their dealers will starve.

After our Go To Market meeting last weds. ... this is almost word for word what I talked to X-Man about. Early in the meeting, Hal Wurster boasted about Chrysler being profitable and making money. Are they really that out of touch to go around telling a bunch of dealers who are struggling to survive that "they" are making money???

[Ralph]

OOps, I didn't do the quote thingy right there, the 1st two paragraphs were from Xman.

Telling Dealers how wonderful it is that they're profitable would be similar to the Haitian government making a big statement about how well they're doing. When your dealers are starving to death, without the product that sells, without customers, without any help from Detroit....it's a pretty hollow point of view.

[crowe]

Originally Posted by Ralph

I heard that one of the BC Managers was boastful that Chrysler's profitable at these low levels since the bankruptcy reorganization.

They can spin this w/ BS any way they want to because they do not have to report a P&L statement yet.
But their PR statements a few months back stated 1 million units in annual sales was the breakeven point. If that’s so, my guess is this level of sales is tracking well in excess of a billion dollar annual loss.

[Ralph]

I think it was 1.2 or 1.3 million to break even. How's 400-500,000 units a year working for ya Sergio? It ain't working for me. I think they're scheduling production based strictly on the allocation numbers...no more. So I can put in all the orders I want, and I only get those that I'm allocated...wait a minute...I've had my minivans on order since September and they're still in C status.

[CL Pgh]

46% (115 stores) of MABC dealerships sold 10 units or less... and at that market meeting I mentioned from last Weds. ... not a single word was mentioned about increasing sales from the zone folks.