February Auto Sales Predictions

[XDCX]

Originally Posted by Jschopp

Where are fleet sales posted?

See this post - click here

[XDCX]

Here's a comparison of the Edmunds.com forecast versus the actual results - Comparing 02/10 to 02/09:

• Chrysler = down 20.2% Actual = Even
• Ford = up 35.3% Actual = up 43%
• GM = up 16.2% Actual = up 12%
• Honda = up 24.1% Actual = up 13%
• Hyundai/KIA = up 24.7% Actual = up 10%
• Nissan = up 38.1% Actual = up 29%
• Toyota = down 10.1% Actual = down 9%

It appears Edmunds.com missed the Chrysler and Hyundai forecast the most - they under estimated Chrysler's performance and over-estimated Hyundai's. Ironically, it was exactly the opposite last month - they over-estimated Chrysler and under-estimated Hyundai/KIA.

On a different note, I thought it was interesting that Porsche outsold Suzuki and Subaru outsold Mazda, BMW and Mercendes.

[Ralph]

Remember, the Chrysler policy at the end of the month was to purposely fudge the numbers by begging dealers to NVDR all KZ retail units Monday. It allows dealers to apply for the rebates etc. before having to pay off the trades or deal with the contracts. I'd have done it if I had any retail orders in KZ. I bet there were a lot of them reported sold that weren't even delivered yet. That'd mean Chrysler actually continued the 26 month long continuous slide to 27 if it wasn't for that policy.

[XDCX]

Originally Posted by Ralph

Remember, the Chrysler policy at the end of the month was to purposely fudge the numbers by begging dealers to NVDR all KZ retail units Monday. It allows dealers to apply for the rebates etc. before having to pay off the trades or deal with the contracts. I'd have done it if I had any retail orders in KZ. I bet there were a lot of them reported sold that weren't even delivered yet. That'd mean Chrysler actually continued the 26 month long continuous slide to 27 if it wasn't for that policy.

While I wouldn't support processing a NVDR in violation to the rules in the Gold Book, I must admit if I were Diaz I would have bumped up fleet sales just to end the downward spiral of 26 consecutive months of falling sales.

In fact, I'd heard some speculation that Chrysler may have backed off their fleet NVDRs last month because they didn't want to have fleet sales be over 50% of their sales mix.