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CL Pgh
04-01-2009, 07:27 PM
Still some thing missing here… I’m not buying Obama/Task Force gloom & doom crap.

Why isn’t Chrysler screaming that Monday’s announcement put them at a huge disadvantage in it’s negotiation with Fiat???

Speaking of Fiat… Fiat CEO Sergio Marchionne was aware the rules (percent’s) were going to change last Friday: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Fiat-CEO-touts-benefits-of-apf-14770043.html : and doesn’t appear to have a problem with it. Nor has Fiat denied the “frame work” completion statement … come to think of it, neither has the Treasury who has supposedly given its O.K.. ???

So… Obama tells Chrysler & the public “30 days to merge, or Chrysler’s done!”. You couldn’t possibly whip-up a merger of these two companies in 30 days, unless, this deal was/is in its final stages! Now… does this statement give him a much needed “win” for forcing a merger and saving UAW jobs? OR … set up the tax payer for the addition bridge loan funds??? If Chrysler lands on that road... it'll serve both!

How about this “Win” for Obama… Obama forces out Wagoner, puts his team in GM… and saves the legendary company from BK and thus saves the UAW, suppliers… blah, blah, blah. I can see the red cape hang’n from his shoulders as he signs off the bridge loan.

And how about this little conspiracy theory: Obama & Gettelfinger agree to a small concession as long as… Wagoner is dumped! This gives Gettelfinger justification on the soon to be negotiated concession and a little revenge on Wagoner for UAW members.

Oh yeah another thing… if Chrysler is in worse shape than GM… why the hell are we getting half (30 days) the time to regroup that GM is getting??? WTF… who made up that rule???

ONE LAST THING … why are all of us domestic car folks getting our panties all in a bunch??? Think about it… Chrysler fails & Fiat w/the financial help of our Government steps in immediately for the hand-off. GM BK’s in a Government assisted structure…. and Obama then introduces America to a Socialized Domestic Auto Industry! You import folks should be chit’n your pants on this one!!! NEVER again will we hear the media Trash Talk the domestic car companies!!! And… Motor Trend announces more awards for the domestic car companies than ever before.

Yep, you guess it… I’ve had a couple beers! My attitude is better X-Man… come on April!!! ;)

XDCX
04-01-2009, 07:51 PM
Yep, you guess it… I’ve had a couple beers! My attitude is better X-Man… come on April!!! ;)

Here's to hoping that April's a better month. :)

I just read through your post - you make some excellent points. I must admit that I've been in the "gloom and doom" camp so I'll have to think about your theories for awhile before I respond.

Glad to hear your attitude is back - a day off work is a good thing. :thumbsup_old:

CL Pgh
04-02-2009, 06:26 AM
I must admit that I've been in the "gloom and doom" camp so I'll have to think about your theories for awhile before I respond.

It all sounds better after a few cocktails! :rolley:

XDCX
04-02-2009, 09:13 AM
I had a chance to think about your thread last night.

I love your conspiracy theory about President Obama shooting Wagoner for the appeasement of the UAW - that could very well be the case. I read a story about how Wagoner was fired - it was almost like they wanted to make it a humiliating experience. The UAW's going to be expected to make a lot of cuts - killing off Wagoner might be the only "win" they get.

Concerning Chrysler and Fiat, I don't know, I still don't buy it.

The fact of the matter is that Fiat's a mess - they're not that much better off then Chrysler in terms of debt, profitability and cash flow. Add to that the fact that Chrysler's been burning through cash and you start to wonder how long the combined company can make it before the Treasury's next installment of $6 Billion is gone?

It will be almost two years before Chrysler and Fiat can expect to see any revenue generation from new products sold in the U.S. - that's a long time to try to hang-on given the current economy and competitive pressures.

I'm still betting that GM goes through some form of bankruptcy and the Chrysler/Fiat deal ends up falling apart.

XDCX
04-02-2009, 01:08 PM
Concerning Chrysler and Fiat, I don't know, I still don't buy it.

While I know that most people probably think I'm insane with my constant GM/Chrysler merger theories, at least I'm not alone. :)

Here's a link to a Blog in the Wall Street Journal that suggests the concept is still alive - http://blogs.wsj.com/deals/2009/04/01/is-a-merger-with-gm-the-best-hope-for-chrysler/

We've all learned that GM was the one who "walked" during the last round of merger discussions. Now that the President's calling the shots who knows what will happen?

Txflyer
04-02-2009, 01:39 PM
I still don't see it. GM is trying to get lean and mean. Merging with Chrysler would send them in the opposite direction IMHO.

XDCX
04-02-2009, 02:22 PM
I still don't see it. GM is trying to get lean and mean. Merging with Chrysler would send them in the opposite direction IMHO.

You make a valid point, but the President has made it clear that GM is no longer calling the shots, he is.

Concerning "lean and mean" I'm convinced that about 80% of Chrysler's overhead would disappear if GM took over. Think of all the overlap that would be eliminated - R&D, Engineering, Design, Human Resources, Sales and Marketing, Purchasing and Supply, Parts operations, etc. To be blunt, it would be a bloodbath for Chrysler's white collar employees.

The merger makes even more sense when you use bankruptcy to portion off the "good" company from the "bad" company.

In fact, this may even answer CL's question about the 30 day versus 60 day issue for Chrysler and GM. If the Fiat deal unwinds the President can still "package" a deal with GM and come out looking like a hero.

Granted, there's a lot of speculation on my part and I've been wrong in the past. That said, I just don't see how the Fiat deal can work. :confused:

dafuzz1956
04-02-2009, 03:31 PM
A "SOCIALIZED DOMESTIC AUTO MARKET", that really stirs up alot of questions.

1. Will there be price fixing?
2. Will there be a profit margin?
3. Will auto dealerships remain a small business or become something like a federal cheese dispensary?
4. Will imports pay higher tarriffs that will price them way to high above domestics?
5. Will you recieve larger tax breaks on a G-Car?
6. Will the gov't regulate how dealership personel are paid, could that mean a raise?

JUST A FEW THINGS TO PONDER :clown:



NOW I NEED A BEER

XDCX
04-02-2009, 07:21 PM
JUST A FEW THINGS TO PONDER :clown:


That's a pretty sobering list. :(

I think it's interesting to see how many banks are already making plans to give their TARP money back to the Treasury so they can get the government out of their lives.

Sadly, it will take GM and Chrysler years to pay the TARP money back and many of the issues you site could be on the radar screen. There's no question that Washington DC has an agenda for the Auto Industry and the President has just shown they don't have a problem forcing decisions.

These are definitely uncharted waters - who knows what will happen?

And to CL's point, what will this mean for the Import OEMs? Will the Congress and President be more likely to impose tariffs and quotas if that's the only way to "prop-up" GM and Chrysler allowing them to pay back the loans? Based on what we've seen so far, I think almost anything's possible. :confused:

CL Pgh
04-02-2009, 08:16 PM
And to CL's point, what will this mean for the Import OEMs? Will the Congress and President be more likely to impose tariffs and quotas if that's the only way to "prop-up" GM and Chrysler allowing them to pay back the loans? Based on what we've seen so far, I think almost anything's possible. :confused:

The main thing our government will need to do is keep gas under $3.00 gal. ... and the domestics can thrive. Give the market some time to get back above 10,000 and gas under $3.00 will be "cheap"... SUV/Truck/big car market gets hot fast.

XDCX
04-03-2009, 09:42 AM
The main thing our government will need to do is keep gas under $3.00 gal. ... and the domestics can thrive. Give the market some time to get back above 10,000 and gas under $3.00 will be "cheap"... SUV/Truck/big car market gets hot fast.

I totally agree, the only problem is the President has stated he doesn't want to see Detroit return to their old ways. In fact, he specifically referenced SUVs.

Granted a lot of that is just pandering for the media but it's troubling none the less.

I do agree that the car market will get better when the stock market and the housing market get better. There will definitely be some "pent-up" demand and I think the rising prices for used cars at auction is a sign that we've hit bottom and business will start to slowly improve.